Good day, and thank you for joining me on the first post of Early Doors Football. As this is the very first blog I am writing, I would like to take a brief moment to note a couple things. First off, for those of you who are wondering who I am, please check out the “About Me” page. Secondly, as I am very new to this, I would love any feedback or suggestions that you think of! There is a “Contact Me” section, so it would be very appreciated if you could take some time to provide some feedback. Now, for what all of you are here for, football!
Seeing as we are roughly halfway through the English Premier League Season, I feel it is worth making some predictions. Normally, I would only make predictions at the beginning of the season, but of course Early Doors Football did not exist at that point. Truthfully, my thoughts haven’t changed much from the beginning of the season, however there are few things that I personally did not expect.
I will predict the top 6 and relegation zone, and go into why I think each team will finish in their respective positions.
1. Manchester City
What can I even say at this point? City are simply on another level. They have scored the most goals, conceded the fewest, and simply look well on their way to a fourth Premier League title in five years. I could rave about City for hours, and I certainly will in future articles, but now is not the time for that. Their efficiency is something to be truly feared by their competitors, and something worth looking into deeply in the future. Barring any sensational collapses, Manchester City will be champions when gameweek 38 finishes.
2. Liverpool
The race for second and third place will be very tight, but I think Liverpool will just about have what it takes to secure second place. I personally do not think we have seen the best of Liverpool yet, and when Salah and Mané return from the African Cup of Nations, I think we will really see Liverpool change gears. The games that these superstars miss over the next couple of weeks will be testing, but I think they will be able to get through them relatively unscathed. Defensively, Liverpool have not really reached the heights that we became accustomed to over the past few years, but I feel they will only get better as the season wears on. They already have 10 clean sheets this season, but watching them live, you can see lapses in their game. The more Virgil Van Dijk plays, the better he will get this season, as he is still returning to his pre-injury level. Overall, I think Klopp is simply a master of grinding out games, and this will help them beat Chelsea to the second place spot. I genuinely think Liverpool does not even have to hit top gear to win most of their games, as their counter-attacking ability is simply the best in the world (in my opinion, of course). While the title is all but wrapped up, the race for the other spots will absolutely be worth watching.
3. Chelsea
Being a Chelsea fan since I was a child, I would love to write that they would finish higher than third, but I just do not think it is in the cards this year. I do not think we can quite hit the heights Liverpool can for a couple of key reasons. Firstly, I think we lack a real goal scorer at the moment. It is certainly possible this changes in the second half of the season, seeing as it appears Lukaku is back to full fitness and should be regularly in contention for a starting place. Lukaku finally finding his shooting boots is not something I am extremely optimistic about, however his presence will absolutely help. Secondly, our defensive strength has decreased as of late. Ben Chilwell, Reece James, and Trevoh Chalobah are all out for a minimum of a month at this point, with Chilwell being sidelined for the rest of the season. Due to our three center back formation, we are already stretched a bit thin to begin with, so I think there is definitely cause for concern. Having both starting wing backs sidelined really limits the creativity coming from the width, which will absolutely hinder our already mediocre goal scoring. At the time of writing, we have been linked with the American right wing back Sergiño Dest, which would definitely be useful, but the move still seems unlikely. Another issue is our relentless schedule, which sees us playing for months with almost no significant breaks. Of course, it is lovely to be in so many competitions, but it will likely impact our ability to perform at our highest levels in the Premier League. Like mentioned previously, I do think the race for second will be tight, so the smallest of margins could decide who finishes in second place.
4. Tottenham
This is where things start to get difficult. I think there are four genuine contenders for the spots of fourth through sixth, and they are all extremely close to one another in terms of form at the moment. With that being said, I think Tottenham have what it takes to claim the last Champions League spot. The source of my confidence comes from Antonio Conte. This manager is truly one of the best in the world, and was a stunning appointment by Daniel Levy. The man is a serial winner, and while he will almost certainly go trophyless this season, finishing top four with this squad would be a huge success. Since his appointment, Conte has significantly tightened up Spurs’ leaky defense, which proved a huge issue under the previous manager, Nuno Espírito Santo. Arguably even more important than the defensive improvements, is the fact that Harry Kane seems to be finding his feet under the new boss. While his tally is still woefully low at four goals, he seems to be slowly improving his performances. I do think his season will still be considered a huge failure by his extremely high goal scoring standards, but if he can kick on and get anywhere near his form of past seasons, he will go a long way in securing the fourth spot for Tottenham. With all of this being said, I do think Arsenal will challenge them all the way to gameweek 38. If Spurs hit a bad run of form, they may not only slip away from the Champions League places, but could sink into the regions of upper mid-table.
5. Arsenal
It has been quite an odd season for Arsenal. They started off losing three games on the spin, then had to exile their captain, but yet they currently sit in fourth place. Arsenal are on a clear uptrend, and I think they should really be happy with their progress. Many of their fans have unreasonably high expectations (hence the constant shouts to sack their manager), however I think Mikel Arteta is really doing a good job. He’s building a team for the future and made some astute signings, so I think Arsenal are certainly a team to watch long term. Arsenal has one of the youngest squads in the league, so finishing top six with a relatively inexperienced team is not something to undervalue. I am writing this at the beginning of the January transfer window, so if they can find a striker this month, I think they will really pressure Tottenham for the fourth position. Any notable striker would likely be difficult to sign in the January window, so this transfer will likely be put on hold until the summer. This is where I think they lack, and without a consistent and clinical striker, they will struggle to put the bigger teams away whenever they face them. The North London side will be one to watch over the next few months and years, but I think it is a little too early for them to claim Champions League Football.
6. West Ham United
David Moyes has simply done a fantastic job at West Ham. He has turned the Hammers from a mid-table team, into a team that challenges for Europe. Moyes’ men now consistently give the top four a run for their money whenever they cross paths, and were on course to finish in a Champions League place until a late season slump last season. West Ham have defensive solidity, an excellent striker in Michail Antonio, and a fantastic midfield pairing of Declan Rice and Tomáš Souček. With all of that, it is no surprise that they challenge for European Football now. This season, West Ham have been forced to go a large portion of the year without two key central defenders, Kurt Zouma and Angelo Ogbanna. These losses have led to their defense being more unstable than usual, and will ultimately limit their success in my opinion. In addition, Antonio has been a bit more streaky than seasons past. He went 8 games without a goal this season, but has since picked up better scoring form. Presuming this inconsistency remains this season, in combination with the fact that he is prone to injuries, I think West Ham won’t have what it takes to overtake their London rivals. The Hammers should be happy with sixth place, and with adept signings over the summer, they may be able to have a real run at the top four.
Notably, I have left out Manchester United. I may wish I had included them come the end of the season, but at the moment, they have been utterly terrible. The ownership hierarchy creates most of the problems themselves, but the poor performances can only be put on the players and the manager. United have been extremely poor over the last few seasons, basically since Ole Gunnar Soljskaer took charge. Ralf Ragnick, the new manager, has been unable to improve this side so far, so I think the issues will only persist. The Red Devils’ problems run deep, and they will certainly be the subject of a future article.
Just as we look at the top of the league, we must also look at the bottom. While the quality of the teams may be lower in this region, it is certainly no easier to predict. Next, I am going to try and predict which three teams will be relegated from the Premier League into the Championship.
18. Burnley
Although Sean Dyche has done a fantastic job keeping Burnley in the Premier League over the past five seasons, I think this is where their Premier League stay comes to an end. Chris Wood has been extremely poor this season, netting only three times in 18 games, which is horrendous by his standards. The old-fashioned striker was a key reason for Burnley’s past success, and with him misfiring, they have struggled considerably. Maxwell Cornet has proven an excellent signing, but I do not think he will be enough. In rather unusual fashion, they have been very poor defensively. Their defensive strength was what Burnley’s success was built upon, so I think this is what will really hurt them. James Tarkowski and Nick Pope have been shadows of their former selves, hence Burnley’s defensive woes. Having said all of this, I would not be surprised in the slightest if Dyche pulls something together to scrape by relegation. He has proved a master of doing such in the past, but I think there are just too many problems that need fixing right now.
19. Watford
Watford are a bit of a weird one. They don’t get shutout very often (for a team as low as them in the league), yet still don’t score many goals. It does not take a rocket scientist to realize that they have significant defensive frailties, but in my opinion, the biggest problem is their midfield. They have poor pass accuracy, despite the fact they have rather low possession. This leads to sustained pressure from the opposition, which is always unideal, especially when you have been lackluster defensively. Watford concede the third most shots per game in the league, which only adds to their woes. In all, Watford seem to just not be cut out for the Premier League in their current form.
20. Norwich City
Norwich City have been utterly dreadful every time they have been promoted over the past few years. They have no hope to stay up, and will undoubtedly have their fate sealed far before the final gameweek. Norwich have only managed to score eight goals this entire season, while conceding a whopping 42. There is not a whole lot more I can say really. We have seen the Canaries yo-yo up and down between the Premier League and Championship for years now, and this will be no different. Hopefully they can at least spare themselves some pride in the second half of the season.
Well, that covers all of the key positions! Time will tell how accurate these predictions are, and I will be coming back at the end of the season to see how well I did. As this is the first post, I would like to request any ideas that anyone is interested in. I would be happy to write some articles for requested topics, so please do not hesitate to reach out. Thank you all for joining me on this adventure, and have a lovely rest of your week!
This can’t be right… surely Everton belong in the relegation zone…